My Predictions

So here's my insanely long, very wanker-ish opinions on what the coming decade will bring: Three parts: One, global, the second technological and the third kinda medical:

1.) Global - If the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the end of the bi-polar world, then the collapse of Lehman Bros in the fall of 2008 marked the end of the uni-polar world. This past decade has been a miserable one for our neighbors to the south. They began the decade as the world's only superpower and are ending it broke, embroiled in two seemingly endless - and pointless - conflicts and, most importantly, their global moral authority has been diminished to almost nil.

The coming decade will mark the United States' gradual return to strength - never bet against them - but it will also mark the emergence of a truly multi-polar world. We all know about the rise of China; the story in the coming decade will be about the economic and political rise of places like India and Brazil.

2.) Technological - Welcome to the 100-billion channel world. Information, information, information everywhere. I'm old enough to remember rotary phones, party lines and 45rpm singles. I am in a near constant state of amazement of how far this digital revolution has come and I can hardly wait to see how far it goes. The coming decade will see something astounding: I have no idea what it will be but I do know I'll be amazed.

3.) Medical - I think the coming decade will see some amazing advances in our understanding of the human brain, not just it's structure but also it's function. I think by decade's end, we will have a much deeper understanding of the role brain chemistry and resulting emotions play in our lives.

As an economist by study and inclination, it was fascinating to me watch stock market collapse in the fall of 2008 completely destroy the economic notion of man as a "rational actor". That was panic, pure and simple, and a new model of economic thought and study is rising from those ashes. This new model tries to model the role emotion has in people's decision making processes. This attempt to integrate the impact of of emotional state into our decision making process is spreading to other disciplines - think marketing - as well.

Of the three things I've mentioned, this is the one that worries me the most. I'm one that believes in the law of unintended consequences. Medical science is advancing in the study brain chemistry to the point that by 2020, we may be able to actually identify "the ghost in the machine"; it may simply be some combination of brain chemistry. This has obvious positive impact in our understanding and treatment of mental illness. The downside - and it's considerable - is that an understanding of why and how emotions are created in our brain and how those emotions incline us to do certain things can lead to the unscrupulous manipulation of our emotional states to achieve a desired outcome. Some weird combination of Strausian philosophy and "Prozac Nation" may be our future.

There you are! There's my thoughts on the decade's end and the coming ten years. What do you think?